warmpool
El Nino and US power demand, from 1870 to the 2026-27 winter
Measure
Forecast method
Winter price premium outlook
(DJF average over Sep-Oct average)
DTW analog winters for 2026
and what US heating demand did
Strongest El Nino events since 1870
Variable
Season
State for the month by lead grid
Clusters
Association rules mined with FP-growth
(permutation tested, BH FDR)
Level
Winters
Method
CRPS skill vs climatology by region
(positive means the method helped)
Winter premium vs heating demand, by market
Quality checks run at every build
ENSO splice calibration
(HadISST to RONI)
Run info
Raw files and checksums